here is an article about random murder in NYC, year 2007
November 22, 2007
Fewer New York Murders, and Even Fewer by Strangers
By
AL BAKER
New York City is on track to have fewer than 500 murders in 2007, by far the lowest amount in a 12-month period since reliable Police Department statistics became available in 1963.
But within the city’s official crime statistics is a perhaps even more striking figure: so far, with roughly half the killings analyzed,
only 35 were found to be committed by strangers, a microscopic statistic in a city of 8.5 million.
If that trend holds up, fewer than 100 murder victims in New York City this year would not have known the assailants who took their lives. The vast majority died in disputes with friends or acquaintances, with rival drug crew members or — to a far lesser degree — with boyfriends, girlfriends, parents and others.The low number of stranger killings belies imagery of New Yorkers being vulnerable to arbitrary attacks on the streets, or dying in robberies or muggings that turned violent.
In the eyes of some criminologists, the New York murder rate at such base levels means the police will be hard pressed to drive it down further because most killings are now occurring within the four walls of an apartment or in the confines of close-in relationships.
“What are you going to do send cops to every house?” said Dr. Peter K. Manning, who is the Brooks professor of criminal justice at Northeastern University in Boston.
“We know that historically, homicide is the least suppressible crime by police action,” he added. “It is, generally speaking, a private crime, resulting from people who know one another and have relationships that end up in death struggles at home or in semi-public places.”
The murder figure caps a remarkable slide in the crime rate since 1990, when New York recorded its greatest number of murders in a single year — 2,245 — and when untold scores of the victims were killed in stranger-on-stranger violence.
Murders began falling in the early 1990’s, when
Raymond W. Kelly first served as police commissioner, and plumetted further under subsequent commissioners. Mr. Kelly returned to serve under Mayor
Michael R. Bloomberg in 2002, the first year there were fewer than 600 homicides. There were 587 murders in 2002, down from 649 in the previous year.
Nearly two decades ago, the city’s crack-cocaine epidemic led to headlines about gang turf wars, semiautomatic gunfire in schoolyards and a daily police blotter that grimly reported more than six homicides, on average.
This year, with 428 murders logged as of Sunday — 412 actual killings plus 16 crime victims who have died this year from injuries sustained long ago — the average number of murders is slightly more than one per day.
The numbers on file from before 1963 are not considered reliable because in those years, many homicides were not recorded until an arrest was made and the case was closed, making any comparisons faulty. For example, there were 390 murders recorded in 1960, but the different methodology means that number cannot be compared to today’s.
The killings in 2007 that have seized recent headlines appear to have personal motives at their core: An assistant has been charged with killing her broker boss, Linda Stein, inside Ms. Stein’s Fifth Avenue penthouse after a vicious argument; a Queens orthodontist, Daniel Malakov, was allegedly gunned down by a relative of his estranged wife, a woman he was bitterly fighting in twin divorce and child custody proceedings.
So far this year, Police Department analysts have been able to determine a relationship between the victim and assailant in 212 of the 428 murders committed as of Nov. 18.
They found 35 instances where the victim did not know the killer. Officials said there 121 such instances for all of last year. The motives in the remainder of the killings are still being analyzed. The sliding homicide rate raises a question of whether other types of offenses are on the rise. But police statistics — which are subject to an internal auditing system in place since the early 1990’s — show dips in six of the seven major crime categories, according to the department’s latest marking-period reports.
As of Sunday, overall crime is down 6.47 percent, compared with the same period last year. Besides murders falling, the numbers of rapes, robberies, burglaries, grand larcenies and car thefts are all on the decline. Felony assaults have increased slightly, to 15,372 from 15,344, a 0.1 percent increase, according to the police statistics. Shootings, a number the department has tracked for 14 years, as well as the number of victims wounded in those shootings are both down.
After years when crime fell across the nation, many cities in the country are now experiencing a surge in homicides, said Thomas A. Reppetto, a police historian who monitors the city crime numbers and who helped write, “
NYPD: A City and Its Police,” (Henry Holt, 2000).
“You would expect New York to follow the national trend, but instead, murders continue to go down considerably,” said Mr. Reppetto.
“Not only has the N.Y.P.D. reduced murder, by nearly 80 percent, but it has changed the pattern of homicides,” he added. “In the early 1990’s, many innocent citizens were killed by bullets from battling drug gangs. Today, thanks to the police drive against the gangs, that type of homicide is far less common.”
What is extremely common around the nation in the case of non-stranger murders is not family member versus family member, but criminal against criminal or drug crew members killing one another, said David M. Kennedy, the director of the Center for Crime Prevention and Control at the
John Jay College of Criminal Justice in Manhattan.
Indeed, according to 400 killings this year that the Police Department has analyzed, the numbers of people with previous arrests for homicides was striking: 196 victims and 149 alleged killers. And, 77 percent of alleged killers had a previous arrest history, while 70 percent of victims did, the statistics showed.
When told about the low murder numbers, Mr. Kennedy uttered a single word: “Wow.”
Then, he added: “What this shows is that the N.Y.P.D. — and whatever else is going on in New York — has managed to squeeze the problem of active offenders against active offenders down to a remarkably, historically low level.”