You don't really KNOW unless you put tire warmers on before, or a temp gauge on them and actually check it. And since you aren't really going to do either on the street, you are making an educated guess that is effected by tire, tire pressure, temperature, riding style and surface conditions.
Therefore, my answer is: You may not know exactly when they are warm enough, but I can tell you EXACTLY when they are NOT (when they lose grip and you CRASH)...
Good Morning Gents!
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CONGRATULATIONS Skydivr, you win the prize! This is the best response of all in my view!
I don't think any of us are really capable of rolling our trusty steed out of the garage, heading down the lane in the warm morning sun, while making our way to a secret twisty spot that only WE know about suddenly realize "Hey, these new michelins warmed up to romping temp in only 3.7 miles while that trashed set of Bridgestones I replaced took 5.2 miles"! Can I tell tell how quickly or slowly a tire warms up by riding it, Hell No! All I can tell you is the rear did or did not spin when I demanded grip and if the front did or did not push if I ask it for grip and I know a cold tire will dump me on my head if I get cocky.
There are way to many variables for averages riders like us to be able to judge how quickly or slowly a tire warms up. We have Michelin PR-3's (Which are popular with many) with a heavy carcass designed for heavy loads with deep tread, does this touring tire heat up faster or slower than the Dunlop Q2 performance tire which is also very popular with many? I think we all have a general idea that if we ride to our twisty haven twenty miles away on a hot day that we can pretty much count on our tires being warmed up for play time. But, is the sides safely heated or do we need to work our way onto the edges in order to maximize the shoulder grip? It's a question that haunts many of us every time we play. Loosing that precious commodity we call grip is one of the most feared tangents of riding and drastically restricts our mental ability to force ourselves to lean farther although the tire has more lean available.
One poster says he knows when his tires are warm when his onboard pressure display says the pressure is up 3 pounds or so. Sorry, your theory is about an hour or so behind reality. It takes an hour with tire warmers to heat the entire carcass and properly raise the air pressure. The surface of the tire is heated by friction early giving us grip long before the air pressure has properly increased. Carcass flex has a great deal of influence on overall heat. The amount of flex in the carcass has a great deal to do with how quickly the tire increases and raises the air pressure according to the amount of heat produced. That's why some tires may only gain 3 pounds while others may gain 5 pounds with the same cold pressure under the same conditions.
Some say they know when a tire is warm enough to play with the tire stops sliding. Well, if you really make your decisions on tire temp by two wheel drifts until the tire anchors itself then you have crashed more times than I have and I've had my fair share of crashes. And, you may be able to show Danny Eslick a few new tricks about two wheel drifts? Just a thought!
Gary McCoy is the guy that taught us about how spinning the rear on slides raised the surface temperature without over heating the tire to the point of loosing grip. I loved watching Gary McCoy (Very special man) race. However, Gary paid a heavy price with some nasty crashes. When you tell me you judge the heat by when the tire stops sliding, I'm thinking I wanna go watch this guy race!
I can ride a tire until the front starts to push and I can spin the rear at will hot or cold but I have no idea at what point a tire is warm. All I can do is work the tire for a given length of time and hope I have it hot enough (Not necessarily up to optimum temp) to perform the job I ask it to do.
I think most of you would be surprised if you used an infrared heat thermometer to check the temp of your tires to find how hard you have to ride a tire to reach it's optimum temp as well as the difference in temp between the center and the shoulders.
Tires are a very complex component of your bike. Some tires are extremely sensitive to tire pressure combined with ambient temp. Some tires respond to as little as 1/4 pound.
The point of this thread was to point out how quickly a tire warms up should not be a concern when we choose a tire. Choose a tire by the task you ask the tire to perform. We are blessed with a wonderful aray of choices in tires. The street tires today perform as well as the race tires only a few short years ago. As well, I wanted to point out when someone says one tire heats up faster than another tire, it may be time to think about how you came to that conclusion?
Remember, cold tires will put you on your head but it's no excuse for crashing!