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Most affluent voters key to Obama sweep
ListenPrintCommentEmailSubscribe.By MARK PENN | 11/11/08 4:36 AM EDT Text Size-+reset.
Penn notes it was those who will be taxed under the new Obama plan that provided win.
AP Photo Barack Obama promised he would lower taxes for 95 percent of Americans and presumably raise them for the 5 percent who benefited most under President Bush’s tax policies. But, remarkably, the most affluent 5 percent supported Obama and that was perhaps the key to his victory last week.
This group — and the rise of a new elite class of voters — is at the heart of the fast-paced changes in demographics affecting the political, sociological and economic landscape of the country. While there has been some inflation over the past 12 years, the exit poll demographics show that the fastest growing group of voters in America has been those making over $100,000 a year in income. In 1996, only 9 percent of the electorate said their family income was that high. Last week it had grown to 26 percent — more than one in four voters. And those making over $75,000 are up to 15 percent from 9 percent. Put another way, more than 40 percent of those voting earned over $75,000, making this the highest-income electorate in history.
The poorest segment of the electorate, those making under $15,000, has shrunk from 11 percent to 6 percent over the past dozen years. And those making $15,000 to $30,000 annually — the working poor — also shrunk from 23 percent to 12 percent of the electorate.
At the same time, the voters have become more racially diverse (with white voters dropping 9 points from 1996 to 74 percent of the electorate and minorities) and better educated — voters who had attended some college are surging.
While Obama received record votes from the expanded minority communities, that alone would not have led to victory had he not also secured so much support among the growing professional class — and in doing so went beyond the successful 1996 coalition that also climbed the income ladder to include newly targeted soccer moms. Back then, President Clinton got 38 percent of the vote among those making over $100,000. This year Obama earned 49 percent of that vote. He also got 52 percent of a new polling category — those making over $200,000 a year who were no longer among the top 1 percent of earners, as they had been in past elections, but were now the top 6 per cent.
And for all the talk about the surging youth vote, those under 29 went from 17 percent in 1996 and 17 percent in 2004 to a mere to 18 percent of the electorate today — and that youth surge was heavily fueled by the fact that the minority communities are much younger than their white counterparts. Of the 18 percent under age 29 who voted this year, 11 percent were white and 7 percent were minority.
So the fusion of expanded minority voting and the expanded upper class, combined with shifting demographics, were key to Obama’s victory. But while demographers have been predicting the growth in minority voting — especially the Latino increases — for decades, they did not predict the upscale income changes in the electorate or focus on them. Most people in America (over 80 percent) no matter what their income, say they are middle class, which is why that phrase is so powerful on the stump.
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Show the first 20 comments Sane64 Party: DemocratReply #1 Nov. 11, 2008 - 6:00 AM ESTYes sir... after all the moaning and groaning about raising taxes on these boards leading up to the election, it turns out the people whose taxes will be raised voted for Obama over McCain. Funny how that works eh?.ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. Joe's6Pack Party: RepublicanReply #2 Nov. 11, 2008 - 6:03 AM ESTBreaking from Newsmax.com Congressman Warns of Obama Dictatorship A Republican congressman from Georgia said Monday he fears that President-elect Obama will establish a Gestapo-like security force to impose a Marxist or fascist dictatorship..ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. drbillybob Party: RepublicanReply #3 Nov. 11, 2008 - 6:04 AM ESTCan you say "rich white guilt" ?
.ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. WorldOver Party: IndependentReply #4 Nov. 11, 2008 - 7:44 AM ESTYou mean the smart ones with money group also voted for Obama. What group DID vote for McCain?.ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. Cable Party: ConservativeReply #5 Nov. 11, 2008 - 7:53 AM ESTTeamPolitico: Nov. 11, 2008 - 4:39 AM EST These new professionals in software, the media, consulting, and mid-management have now declared themselves to be Democrats. After seeing Clinton and Bush back to back, they have switched their votes as part of a rejection of the religious right, the war in Iraq, and laissez-faire economics.
It would appear they have declared themselves more Marxist than Democrat. Just look at the agenda. The government is well on the way toward nationalizing American business. This is a huge conflict of interest, when those who make the laws are in it for the money. Corruption will follow big time. These new, well educated, scientific voters are about to get a new education. They could simply look at history and learn this the easy way, but it appears that may not satisfy these elites. TIme to hold on folks, it's going to get a bit bumpy.
.ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. WorldOver Party: IndependentReply #6 Nov. 11, 2008 - 8:00 AM ESTCable: Nov. 11, 2008 - 7:53 AM EST It would appear they have declared themselves more Marxist than Democrat. Just look at the agenda. The government is well on the way toward nationalizing American business. This is a huge conflict of interest, when those who make the laws are in it for the money. Corruption will follow big time. These new, well educated, scientific voters are about to get a new education. They could simply look at history and learn this the easy way, but it appears that may not satisfy these elites. TIme to hold on folks, it's going to get a bit bumpy.
WHO started with the nationalization of banks? (what's your definition of a Marxist, btw)
.ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. dos_centavos Party: IndependentReply #7 Nov. 11, 2008 - 8:01 AM ESTTeamPolitico: Nov. 11, 2008 - 4:39 AM EST In the end when it comes to a congressional vote, will they support higher taxes if they have to pay them?
I'm waiting for the congress and Obama to tell Oprah - no more free cars to the public, open your wallet and put it in the government coffers.
.ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. Stephen_Lahanas Party: IndependentReply #8 Nov. 11, 2008 - 8:07 AM ESTAIG is OOC - Out of Control The insurance giant AIG has an insatiable appetite - yesterday it gobbled down another $40 billion, this time allocated from the $700 Bailout fund. AIG has now to date swallowed $153 billion of your Tax Dollars. That pricetag now includes the following components:
$60 billion in preferred loans (down from the original 85). $40 billion in preferred stock for the government (and the company is now running under a government appointed CEO). $53 billion to buy up toxic debt, mortgage backed securities. At this rate, one company may devour the entire bailout package. It has never fully been explained why AIG is receiving such special treatment; it is not the only insurance giant in the United States and yet no other insurance companies have warranted this kind of attention or any bailout funds to date.
It's time to launch a real investigation as to what's going on here. There a number of problems with this situation; those problems include the following:
The inclusion of ANY toxic debt support. That $53 billion will be a total loss for the taxpayer right when we need it most to help bolster the economy. The provision of ANY loans without more stringent guidance. Just a week after the first loan of $85 billion, AIG executives went on a luxury retreat and seemed geared towards doing business as usual. Some of this has been corrected, some hasn't. We still haven't been provided clear answers as to why AIG deserves this treatment other than vague assertions that it is too big to fail and too connected to the rest of the financial system. Well - news flash, the rest of the financial system already failed. Bailing out AIG did not prevent that. We need to restructure this deal immediately. The of the bailout needs to be shifted back to its original limits and all of that money needs to be dedicated to providing the government preferred stock - no loans and no payoff for toxic debts. And most importantly, this needs to be a firm limit. The company has to work with this amount, period - this $85 billion figure still represents as much as the entire auto industry may need to be rescued, $85 billion is enough to save one insurance company.
Copyright 2008, Stephen Lahanas
.ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. Solomon44 Party: N/AReply #9 Nov. 11, 2008 - 8:24 AM ESTdrbillybob-"Can you say "rich white guilt" ?" Can you say socially aware, and responsible?.ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. D.affiliated Party: IndependentReply #10 Nov. 11, 2008 - 8:38 AM ESTCable: Nov. 11, 2008 - 7:53 AM EST It would appear they have declared themselves more Marxist than Democrat.
It would appear that you have just declared yourself an idiot. It is that type of sensationalistic hyperbolic deceitful nonsense that is pushing people over to the Democrats. The right is growing less and less rational and intellectually honest by the moment. What you said makes no sense, which you would know if you knew the actual definition of a Marxist. But you right-wing hatemongers don't really care. The only thing that matters is how dramatic you can be and how things strike you in your stomach.
.ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. D.affiliated Party: IndependentReply #11 Nov. 11, 2008 - 8:43 AM ESTWorldOver: Nov. 11, 2008 - 8:00 AM EST WHO started with the nationalization of banks? (what's your definition of a Marxist, btw)
Great point, but you can't allow a deceitful right-wing ideologically blind zealous hatemonger that kind of wiggle room. It's not about *his* definition of Marxist. He can't just change the definition to fit his scurrilous purposes. There is A definition of Marxist and right-wingers can't just change the definition to engage in their totally transperant to anyone with a clue ignorant hate and smear campaign.
.ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. Cable Party: ConservativeReply #12 Nov. 11, 2008 - 8:46 AM ESTWorldOver: Nov. 11, 2008 - 8:00 AM EST WHO started with the nationalization of banks? (what's your definition of a Marxist, btw)
Who's going to finish it? You go look up Marxism, I didn't define it.
.ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. Cable Party: ConservativeReply #13 Nov. 11, 2008 - 8:48 AM ESTD.affiliated: Nov. 11, 2008 - 8:38 AM EST It would appear that you have just declared yourself an idiot.
Thanks for that. I haven't been called a bad name by an elitist yet today. You just filled my quota. The rest will be gravey.
"But you right-wing hatemongers don't really care."
Are you mongering hate toward us right-wingers?
.ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. xxtxx Party: NAReply #14 Nov. 11, 2008 - 8:51 AM ESTThe policy of the GOP has been to cater to the wealthy and their corporate interests and yet these people vote more for the Democrats. Meanwhile, the economics of the middle class who make up the Republican Party have been undermined (with declining wages & soaring costs) and ignored by the Washington GOP. No wonder they lost the election..ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. toolman3 Party: N/AReply #15 Nov. 11, 2008 - 8:52 AM ESTWorldOver: Nov. 11, 2008 - 7:44 AM EST What group DID vote for McCain?
60-65 years old...the only age demo the GOP carried this time...
no college......
under 50K annual income--
in other words.....low information voters
.........fortunately ACORN will be registering millions
of new progressive voters-
to make sure those people don't
make our future choices..
.ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. Cable Party: ConservativeReply #16 Nov. 11, 2008 - 8:59 AM ESTtoolman3: Nov. 11, 2008 - 8:52 AM EST fortunately ACORN will be registering millions
of new progressive voters-
It would be interesting to know the full education demographic of the deomcrat voter. From what I've seen the education level isn't all that impressive. They have their dropouts and racists the same as any other party.
.ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. USA Patriot Party: DemocratReply #17 Nov. 11, 2008 - 9:00 AM ESTCable wrote: "It would appear they have declared themselves more Marxist than Democrat." Wrong. They did 2 things unknown to conservatives. They put their money where their mouths are, and they put their country ahead of their wallets. These personal characteristics of honesty and patriotism are unknown to conservatives..ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. AJ0909 Party: LibertarianReply #18 Nov. 11, 2008 - 9:02 AM ESTWait...I thought the economy has been terrible for the past 8 years. How did these people's incomes grow so much? Were they listening to Obama at all during the campaign? I guess they thought they would get an exemption if they voted for him. If what they want is to "bring back the 90s", I guess they forget that Republicans had majorities in both houses of Congress, the majority of governorships and the majority of state legislatures, not to mention a key mayor in NY. All the Democrats had was a weakened moderate in the White House who got elected with 42% of the vote and basically signed whatever Newt Gingrich put on his desk after 1994. But oh boy...we really stuck it to those Christians. Maybe Obama will at least let us throw a few of them to the lions after he takes all our money. Say hello to Joe the Plumber on your way down..ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. toolman3 Party: N/AReply #19 Nov. 11, 2008 - 9:04 AM ESTCable: Nov. 11, 2008 - 8:59 AM EST deomcrat
needless to say--
most of them can spell "democrat"
.ReplyQuoteReport Abuse. Cable Party: ConservativeReply #20 Nov. 11, 2008 - 9:06 AM ESTtoolman3: Nov. 11, 2008 - 9:04 AM EST most of them can spell "democrat"
You are a tool man.
.ReplyQuoteReport Abuse.Read all 92 comments in our forum
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Jinx, I agree that my party seems to have a hard time finding a consistently solid candidate this season. I will also agree that it IS an achievement in having the first Black President.
But, let me give you some stats:
-49.7% of the taxpaying public pay's ZERO taxes
-a significant percentage of the 49.7% acutally get a CASH REFUND on taxes THEY NEVER PAID
- The goverment is currently spending MORE money on benefits (food, shelter, college, medical bennies) than the ENTIRE goverment takes in annually in taxes. We are in the hole before we even GET to defense, or the other things the Government was SUPPOSED to do.
- you can not tax the rich enough, even if you took 100%, to pay for all these handout programs. Obama didn't pay for his law degree, the GOVERNMENT did. He is a PRODUCT of this system. I don't know how much 'struggling' he really did, everything he has is because he was able to get it out of a government PROGRAM.
IT IS NOT SUSTAINABLE. And this is Obama's voting base. I want a President that believes in the equal right for the PURSUIT of happiness, not happiness at the business end of a government's 'redistribution' program.