First of all this is a really good argument!
@Mythos &
@Mr Brown you are making some interesting points and counter points.
I think the big miss here is that those statistics which are broken down by race don't show anything about race at all. What they show is that people in certain income/opportunity/wealth categories are more violent. Much of the Black population lives in the more violent categories so the numbers are higher. For example, I have seen studies (which I cannot quote as I don't remember where) that Blacks in higher socioeconomic categories are significantly less likely to commit crimes than whites. So, the bottom line is that people generally react to their situation and those reactions are more similar between races than not. So while drawing a conclusion that Black people are more violent may be statistically correct, it does not necessarily show that Blacks are naturally more likely to be violent.
I must admit I was surprised at those numbers because I have looked at them often and whites have always been the leaders in violent crimes. This has always been attributed to the crystal meth epidemic, which raced through the white community much like crack did the black community. I'll have to look closer at those numbers and ask my FBI buddies what's going on.
Yes, poverty is a leading indicator in likelihood of arrest for a given crime, but don't make the mistake of conflating arrest rates and commission rates. The wealthy are just as likely to violate laws, they're just less likely to be arrested for it, and even less likely to be convicted. As you know, black people are more likely to be poor than other groups, so it's reasonable that black people are more likely to be arrested as well.
Some other important keys to understanding the UCR and other crime stats are:
A) it's well known that different groups report crime at different rates. For example if you live in a community which has a deep seated fear of either authority in general or police specifically, you are less likely to report a crime.
B) If multiple crimes take place in a given event, only one is reported. In other words, if a person is killed during the commission of a robbery, the robbery isn't included in the stats.
C) Law enforcement funding is tied to specific crimes. For example, if a department can show a high level of drug activity, they become eligible for equipment and financial support which they otherwise wouldn't qualify for. Like everyone else, cops want new and better equipment, so they devote more of their time to drug enforcement. By tying support to specific crimes this way you can all but guarantee that certain crimes will be investigated more frequently.
D) Crime stats are known to manipulated by police administration in order to meet political pressure. For example, if a mayor of a college town is concerned that the town has a high number of rapes, charges may be filed as assault, battery, false imprisonment, etc in order to avoid the stigma of an unsafe campus environment, which could understandably negatively affect enrollment in that college.
E) There is no information about how the race of those arrested is determined. Do they self identify? Is it decided by the arresting officer? The processing clerk at the station? You can see how that would quickly become problematic.
Bottom line is that crime stats are a tool by which changes and trends in crime can be observed, but care should be taken not to accept them as gospel, there's a lot they don't account for.