With all the talk about whats going to happen at the top of the heap with Marquez, Martin, and Bastianini next season, I thought it would be fun to ponder whats going to happen at the opposite end of the spectrum!
Honda now have the worst bike in the class and Mir and Marini are both already looking for the exit. Nakagami is likely not going to be in the class next year unless he has a miraculous comeback. Have heard rumours that Ai Agura has been mentioned to replace him as they want a Japanese rider on the LCR Idemitsu team. Right now Zarco is the only one showing any promise, and loyalty to Honda. So who else might be willing to take on the Honda at this point? Alex Marquez was not shy about how bad things were at Honda after he left, so likely not going to see him returning there. Franco Morbidelli is in a bad spot right now, Aldeguer is slated to replace him at Pramac, might he be one of the ones to take a chance at Honda? Alex Rins hasn’t had the best season on his new Yamaha, might HRC want to bring back their only recent race winner? If he does, his seat on the Factory Yamaha squad might be attractive to quite a few folks! Everyone seems to be eyeing up the Trackhouse Aprilia seats currently occupied by Oliveira and Raul Fernandez. Fernandez just got the 2024 bike and has actually shown flashes, will it be enough to keep him in the class? Mir and Marini have both been mentioned in particular to be after their seats, and Joe Roberts name has been mentioned alot! I cant really see them moving on from Oliveira, he is a proven MotoGP race winner, but you never know. Then you move into guys like Jack Miller and Augusto Fernandez. Miller used to ride for Honda so he might be tempted to make the leap if things at KTM turn completely sour amidst the Pedro Acosta onslaught. Fernandez may be another class casualty as he really hasn’t achieved a lot on a Factory Gas Gas, but he has had some good runs this season. The VR46 guys aren’t going anywhere so you can rule them out of any moves.
Then there’s the question of Yamaha’s desire to have a satellite team (again). VR46 already shunned them, and Pramac is being courted by them. At some point the FIM may have to step in and tell Ducati they simply can’t keep fielding 8 bikes. If that happens, they would be forced to part ways with a couple of the current satellite squads like VR46, Gresini or Pramac? If they (FIM/Liberty media) ever hope to attract other manufacturers to the class it has to happen.