EV vehicles

[Oz22]

On top of that, all these grid upgrades require huge amounts of copper......something that is getting more and more in short supply.

I read an article describing how a hundred years ago and more copper nuggets the size of cars were being dug out just below the surface of the ground in copper producing regions, now they have to process mountains of dirt to get it.

Today 0.5–1.0% copper is the average grade, so a ton of ore yields 7kg. That's from a vast open pit or a complex underground mine. All extracted by machines burning huge amounts of diesel naturally. Then it has to be crushed, processed and finally smelted.

With the gradual decrease in the grade of copper ores being processed, copper concentrates have become more complex with higher impurity and gangue content. This trend has had a detrimental effect on smelters as they have to increase throughput to maintain copper metal production, while increasing operating costs due to processing the increased amounts...
Most copper ores contain <1% copper and most of the energy and reagents used to extract that copper are consumed by the gangue minerals

It's all very complex and expensive and like a lot of mining processes there isn't the big profits like there used to be. Naturally in the future the problem will only get worse, like the problem with copper contamination is recycled steel. When they melt down cars and washing machines etc small amounts of copper get into the brew and it can't be extracted (economically). So it builds up and up over time. I recall that by about 2050 the copper content will so bad that the recycled steel produced will be unsuitable for structural use, being only good for making more washing machines and BBQ's

Naturally NO ONE is thinking of this at Tesla or any other big money making corporation. The world only thinks in quarterly profit statements now.

 

[TallTom]

I read an article describing how a hundred years ago and more copper nuggets the size of cars were being dug out just below the surface of the ground in copper producing regions, now they have to process mountains of dirt to get it.

Today 0.5–1.0% copper is the average grade, so a ton of ore yields 7kg. That's from a vast open pit or a complex underground mine. All extracted by machines burning huge amounts of diesel naturally. Then it has to be crushed, processed and finally smelted.


It's all very complex and expensive and like a lot of mining processes there isn't the big profits like there used to be. Naturally in the future the problem will only get worse, like the problem with copper contamination is recycled steel. When they melt down cars and washing machines etc small amounts of copper get into the brew and it can't be extracted (economically). So it builds up and up over time. I recall that by about 2050 the copper content will so bad that the recycled steel produced will be unsuitable for structural use, being only good for making more washing machines and BBQ's

Naturally NO ONE is thinking of this at Tesla or any other big money making corporation. The world only thinks in quarterly profit statements now.

Some people are thinking of it. Just not the EV fanboys.

We will hit a copper wall. It takes 15 years to get a new mine producing. We will need lots of new copper deposits.

Personally if EVs hit a 20% market share I'll be long on copper. It will be worth more than platinum before it all comes crashing down.

 

[jellyrug]

I read an article describing how a hundred years ago and more copper nuggets the size of cars were being dug out just below the surface of the ground in copper producing regions, now they have to process mountains of dirt to get it.

Today 0.5–1.0% copper is the average grade, so a ton of ore yields 7kg. That's from a vast open pit or a complex underground mine. All extracted by machines burning huge amounts of diesel naturally. Then it has to be crushed, processed and finally smelted.


It's all very complex and expensive and like a lot of mining processes there isn't the big profits like there used to be. Naturally in the future the problem will only get worse, like the problem with copper contamination is recycled steel. When they melt down cars and washing machines etc small amounts of copper get into the brew and it can't be extracted (economically). So it builds up and up over time. I recall that by about 2050 the copper content will so bad that the recycled steel produced will be unsuitable for structural use, being only good for making more washing machines and BBQ's

Naturally NO ONE is thinking of this at Tesla or any other big money making corporation. The world only thinks in quarterly profit statements now.

Copper Demand and Long-Term Availability - International Copper Association

Despite an ever-increasing demand for copper, there is more of the metal available today than at any other time in history.

internationalcopper.org

 

[Oz22]

Personally if EVs hit a 20% market share I'll be long on copper. It will be worth more than platinum before it all comes crashing down.

We certainly have some interesting days ahead! From my research most copper mines produce a lot of other stuff too like tin, Silver, Lead and Gold. If they ramped up copper production A LOT to allow for a big expansion it would dislocate other markets as a side effect. Personally I can't see it happening, like you say, 15 odd years to get a mine into production, changes don't happen fast in that industry.

This is a good link on who mines it and where

The Largest Copper Mines in the World by Capacity

Where are the world's largest copper mines, and just how large are they? Here are the 20 largest copper mines by capacity.

elements.visualcapitalist.com

Chile; Chile, Peru, Peru, Peru, Russia, Indonesia, Zambia, Congo... No wonder the price has been kept so low lol. Somehow I doubt those nations see a lot of the revenues.

 

[Bumblebee]

We certainly have some interesting days ahead! From my research most copper mines produce a lot of other stuff too like tin, Silver, Lead and Gold. If they ramped up copper production A LOT to allow for a big expansion it would dislocate other markets as a side effect. Personally I can't see it happening, like you say, 15 odd years to get a mine into production, changes don't happen fast in that industry.

This is a good link on who mines it and where

The Largest Copper Mines in the World by Capacity

Where are the world's largest copper mines, and just how large are they? Here are the 20 largest copper mines by capacity.

elements.visualcapitalist.com

Chile; Chile, Peru, Peru, Peru, Russia, Indonesia, Zambia, Congo... No wonder the price has been kept so low lol. Somehow I doubt those nations see a lot of the revenues.

I wonder how much of the rain forest is being cut down to mine precious metals for the sold purpose of EV production?

All the hemp-wearers probably don't even take this into the equation.....all they seem to look at is the tailpipe.

 

[Bumblebee]

Copper Demand and Long-Term Availability - International Copper Association

Despite an ever-increasing demand for copper, there is more of the metal available today than at any other time in history.

internationalcopper.org

As you see, there is always a yin to a yang....

This is from another financial source.....

A massive copper shortage is on the horizon

It is estimated that mines will only meet 80% of copper needs by 2030

theweek.com

Copper Market Shortage Fears Ignite Amid Surging Demand

Ongoing fears of a forthcoming copper shortage struck the copper market again due to soaring demand projections.

agmetalminer.com

Loading…

www.mining.com

 

[jellyrug]

As you see, there is always a yin to a yang....

This is from another financial source.....

A massive copper shortage is on the horizon

It is estimated that mines will only meet 80% of copper needs by 2030

theweek.com

Copper Market Shortage Fears Ignite Amid Surging Demand

Ongoing fears of a forthcoming copper shortage struck the copper market again due to soaring demand projections.

agmetalminer.com

Loading…

www.mining.com

Same as EV’s and the grid.
There is an abundance of sources for electricity, the infrastructure is however missing.

There is an abundance of copper deposits around the world, not enough mining capacity.

As per my previous post there is the do nothing approach.

We won’t see billions of EV’s and green infrastructure tomorrow. It takes planning, organizing and execution through the years to come.

 

[Bumblebee]

Same as EV’s and the grid.
There is an abundance of sources for electricity, the infrastructure is however missing.

There is an abundance of copper deposits around the world, not enough mining capacity.

As per my previous post there is the do nothing approach.

We won’t see billions of EV’s and green infrastructure tomorrow. It takes planning, organizing and execution through the years to come.

This was one of my talking points from the very beginning of this thread.......the lack of infrastructure to support the roll out of EV......it's almost like it was rushed and forced before any real thought went into it.

Governments of various countries knew EV were coming yet didn't bolster the power grids nor put any real thought into recharge stations nor making sure auto companies who produce these EV are capable of repair or maintain or recycle them....

What could be expected other than push back.....

 

[jellyrug]

This was one of my talking points from the very beginning of this thread.......the lack of infrastructure to support the roll out of EV......it's almost like it was rushed and forced before any real thought went into it.

Governments of various countries knew EV were coming yet didn't bolster the power grids nor put any real thought into recharge stations nor making sure auto companies who produce these EV are capable of repair or maintain or recycle them....

What could be expected other than push back.....

As per my previous post, these things are driven by ROI and IRR.

I looked at enough Solar and batteries to support my home, plus one Tesla. The payback was almost 25 years, which is a terrible investment.

Unless taxpayer money is used to go green, the public will only get involved if they receive suitable return on investment. (ROI)

So far the only company with adequate infrastructure to produce EV’s economically is Tesla. And they are scoring big time.

 

[Oz22]

An assumption nearly everyone makes is that the world will only get better, technology will always improve things. If you challenge this belief you're viewed as doomer and a Luddite, but the fact is the Earth does have limited resources, and one day we will have to cease our suburban sprawl and profligate consumption. Intelligent men and women of science have been pointing this out for centuries actually

The motorcycles we ride today are vastly superior to the ones I saw in the dealerships in the 1970's as a teenage boy. But the roads in general are vastly inferior to those back then. A lot of those blacktop roads were only 20 or 30 years old, older ones hadn't suffered the degradation caused by today's massive trucks either. Every now and then they rebuild a highway from scratch, making it wider, better. But the thousands of other roads out in the countryside and around the cities never see a rebuild, they are only ever patched, small sections rebuilt. Ever more expensive resources, Oil mostly I suspect, and lack of money are the reason.

Honestly, our current civilization was a one shot affair, a 100 year experiment using oil and oil based machinery to pave roads and build concrete bridges etc. No one has ever provided a plan on how to rebuild all this stuff without that cheap oil and coal and that is why I dismiss these future utopian transitions as delusional garbage. You don't have to have a STEM background to come to this conclusion, it's common sense.

Evolution

 

[jellyrug]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/18/climate/world-first-nuclear-fusion-power-plant-commmonwealth/index.html

 

[Oz22]

 

[jellyrug]

View attachment 1691400

 

[Bumblebee]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/18/climate/world-first-nuclear-fusion-power-plant-commmonwealth/index.html

If they keep working on miniaturizing this tech, we could see it in other applications.....maybe locomotives......

Which is something I'd like to see more of, instead they've removed railways in many areas here leaving basically one main trunk line.

Now there are hundreds of semi trucks plying the hiways causing lots of accidents and burning lots of diesel.....

 

[OldBusaGuy]

Copper, and Lithium. None of it grows on trees, and of course it's mined with diesel machinery
A decade ago they chatted about the transition to E-mining but they don't talk about it anymore. Some big corporations with very public mines have bought a few E-dump trucks etc to Green up their image but it ends there. A year back a guy posted this Big E-truck on another forum in defense of the transition. All electric motors in the wheels. Odd think is it had a big radiator up front? Turns out it had a massive diesel engine that drove a gen-set. Probably a good idea, like diesel electric locomotives.

The big problem with mining is all the easy to get at ores are gone, and now they have to go a lot deeper or process grades with much lower metal content. It's a completely logical outcome of 100 years of intense mining, but since they don't talk about it on the TV set no one knows it's happening. There is a Gold mine up in Papua new guinea, fabulous deposit, but it sits up high in the mountains surrounded by jungles and below the plain is a wetlands bog.

The effort they went to building the infrastructure to access the mine site and build it is a saga of epic proportions and there's a great youtube on it. Would have been totally impossible without diesel. When they started it was all done by helicopter, men lowered down to the jungle canopy with chainsaws running so they could cut their way through and get to the ground. Big Ball on those men. But D-10s need a road, and that was incredible, forging the first ones through the swamps, up the mountain sides and then across narrow mountain ridges. I seriously doubt they would even attempt it today but oil was cheap back then. A lot of things were possible with $5 a barrel oil.

Where to you think that the materials come from to build a gasoline or diesel powered vehicle? Condensed from thin air? FYI, it comes from mines and oil wells, same as an EV.

 

[Bumblebee]

Where to you think that the materials come from to build a gasoline or diesel powered vehicle? Condensed from thin air? FYI, it comes from mines and oil wells, same as an EV.

The hunger for raw materials to build and maintain (charge) EV is far greater than that of ICE.....Lithium mines are huge and very (very) environmentally unfriendly. To add to this EV requires all the same raw materials as ICE with the addition of a vast amount of precious metals and copper....

Copper is also a requirement for upgrading or developing the power grid system used to recharge EV.

EV batteries have a shelf life and are very difficult to recycle...

EV are priced out of reach for most lower earners and there aren't anywhere near the number of required recharging stations to handle the need (yet).

A good video:

 

[Bumblebee]

I've just watched a documentary on TV where auto industries, government and insurance companies are looking at tech in the auto industry...

Because of rampant car thefts, there is thought of having to insert one's driver's license into an ATM kind of slot in the car and a facial scan will allow vehicle to start......they are working on a way to negate impaired driving but haven't yet found a way to detect drug impairment in a vehicle.

They already have facial scans to detect drowsy drivers.

I can see in the future, driving will be a vastly different experience than what we have now.

 

[TallTom]

I've just watched a documentary on TV where auto industries, government and insurance companies are looking at tech in the auto industry...

Because of rampant car thefts, there is thought of having to insert one's driver's license into an ATM kind of slot in the car and a facial scan will allow vehicle to start......they are working on a way to negate impaired driving but haven't yet found a way to detect drug impairment in a vehicle.

They already have facial scans to detect drowsy drivers.

I can see in the future, driving will be a vastly different experience than what we have now.

Insurance is pushing very hard for most of this tech. Since 2014 every new vehicle has a data recording black box. If an accident happens guess who gets access to that data?

ABS, Airbags, etc. all to help the insurance companies. Yes they are safer vehicles, but our choice in buying doesn't give us choice to pass over these things.

And so the prices will be forever on the rise to buy a vehicle.

 

[Bumblebee]

Insurance is pushing very hard for most of this tech. Since 2014 every new vehicle has a data recording black box. If an accident happens guess who gets access to that data?

ABS, Airbags, etc. all to help the insurance companies. Yes they are safer vehicles, but our choice in buying doesn't give us choice to pass over these things.

And so the prices will be forever on the rise to buy a vehicle.

And yet insurance companies aren't sold on self drive yet......lots of accidents are happening when in self drive mode considering 99% of the other vehicles aren't using self drive.

 

[jellyrug]

More than 30 years ago, different country, a friend had a number of BMW cars stolen, one after the next. Then got hijacked with one. That was the final straw.

Took a bottle of Scotch, laced it with arsenic, locked it in the glove box. Car got stolen, they found it a day later with four dead bodies.