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Russia and Ukraine
- Thread starter Bumblebee
- Start date
If I'm not mistaken, NATO is a defensive pact. The United States acting to enforce a no-fly zone against Russia would then be the US vs Russia, not NATO vs Russia. That's how WW3 would start and would certainly be a reckless and provocative move. Clearly, Poland is nervous as there are indications Putin is not going to stop. Poland wants the all-out war to happen in Ukraine rather than on Polish soil. I get that but putting the US on the spot about the planes was pretty cheap.
I don't understand the point of more planes for Ukraine anyway. They aren't flying the planes they have mainly because of the advanced Russian ground-based air defenses. All those tanks, APCs, and trucks are not sitting ducks from the air - there are mobile SAMs waiting for an enemy plane to look their way. They are far more vulnerable to ground attack, which is why we are sending the weapons to do so.
Establishing a no-fly zone would involve first clearing these SAMs. That requires something like a stealth aircraft following a wild weasel to shoot the SAM sites with HARMs when the weasel gets them to light up. Even if that were possible (which it is not with just the older Russian fighters), you still have an advanced Russian air force to deal with. This is not Afghanistan, where a couple of A-10s can have their way with ground forces.
So I guess I'm not seeing the no-fly idea. Besides the minute the Ukrainians have some success from the air the Russians will bomb their runways and it's game over.
I don't understand the point of more planes for Ukraine anyway. They aren't flying the planes they have mainly because of the advanced Russian ground-based air defenses. All those tanks, APCs, and trucks are not sitting ducks from the air - there are mobile SAMs waiting for an enemy plane to look their way. They are far more vulnerable to ground attack, which is why we are sending the weapons to do so.
Establishing a no-fly zone would involve first clearing these SAMs. That requires something like a stealth aircraft following a wild weasel to shoot the SAM sites with HARMs when the weasel gets them to light up. Even if that were possible (which it is not with just the older Russian fighters), you still have an advanced Russian air force to deal with. This is not Afghanistan, where a couple of A-10s can have their way with ground forces.
So I guess I'm not seeing the no-fly idea. Besides the minute the Ukrainians have some success from the air the Russians will bomb their runways and it's game over.
Speaking of the ground game, WTH is that tank commander doing bunching up all those tanks in that lil town just so many miles from a larger city? Did he really think there wouldn’t be some defensive actions by Ukraine military? They must have lost 5-6 tanks! They’re using roads instead of going cross country probably due to refueling issues but still…I don’t get it.
Hell, you and I could play the number game all week and gain nothing...what I say is not the gospel and neither is what you are saying....
The bottom line is the invasion of Ukraine was a stupid thing to do and there will be no winners in the end...Russia may conquer the physical terrain through destruction but they will never conquer the people.
I will only say I disagree on Afghanistan...the US either left when they did or stay there forever....there was no middle ground....and there were no allies left behind....there were Afghan nationals who worked with NATO but is NATO actually responsible for them? They worked under contracts and those contracts expired.
I'd imagine the Russian commanders haven't seen combat in either a while or ever....from what I've seen (and little of it) the Russians are not using very well thought out and planned tactics...if these same forces went up against say the US, they'd be wiped out in a flash.
The ground is starting to thaw and that is forcing the columns to stay on roads.
Like I said, there seems to be extensive use of T-72 tanks (old and obsolete), RPG, NLAW, 84mm Carl Gustav and the Javelin are all more than a match for those tanks. The west has sent these weapon systems in abundance...more than enough to destroy the armor they are facing.
TallTom
Registered
They were our allies. We had plenty of notice we were ending that war. Plenty of time to organize the exit.
And yes Ukraine will go down in history as a stupid waste of a country and it's population.
We will never know if it was avoidable by not making them s NATO nation. Or if Putin would not have chosen to invade anyway.
What was being debated was why now. And not 4 years ago.
Yes and just to be clear, Trump negotiated peace with the Taliban and didn't even include the Afghans in the talks. The agreement Trump struck was essentially a surrender. But Trump didn't want the visuals of the withdrawal so he left the mess for Biden to deal with. Biden came in with a choice to escalate the war or call it quits. The Afghan government disappeared when they were not included in the peace. So with the prospects of 100K more troops and 10 more years to fight in a country where there wasn't even a government, he made the right decision and left. When the US withdrawal was confirmed, the initial chaos we saw at the airport was inevitable. But what is lost in casual observers of the effort is that it was the biggest, most successful airlift in history, including the Berlin airlift. Most agree that the US is the only military in the world that could have pulled that off. Note also that the US told people to leave the country 6 months before the mad rush at Baghdad airport. People just didn't believe the speed at which the Taliban would sweep across the country or that the Afghans would simply melt away.
It's also a shame those 13 soldiers had to die, but the reality is that being stuck in one place, in relatively uncontrolled crowds it's a testament to our ability (and cooperation with our enemy the Taliban) more weren't killed by terror attacks.
Yes, and that debate could go on for years and years....I guess you and I will need to fly over and ask Putin ourselves....and probably he wouldn't even know.
As for Afghanistan, the NATO forces were drawing down gradually since 2012.....we trained and equipped the ANA and ANP and they fell apart at the last minute....who could have predicted that?
NATO built a defense force, inserted a puppet government and were planning to leave, at the end there weren't enough troops on ground to defend a city block...once the ANA and ANP fell apart....all of a sudden the people who worked for NATO at one point wanted out....nobody could have foreseen that....
And there was no way of extracting these some 10,000 people under fire from the Taliban safely other than the way it was done.....NATO would have had to insert 100,000 troops into Afghanistan basically on a moment's notice....ever try to move that many troops and equipment that quickly?
and in the end, those troops would have needed to be extracted...under fire....from a vulnerable air port....
All true, except it was the Kabul airport...Baghdad is in Iraq...
And the Taliban said it was ISIS who used suicide bombers against the US troops....not that I 100% believe them but they held the country so why lie at that point?
I know the sanctions on Russia is pushing oil prices to where we all feel the pain.
The question is whether a bit of foresight could have avoided this dilemma?
Interesting what the stock market predicted before Biden took office. Link below.
seekingalpha.com
The question is whether a bit of foresight could have avoided this dilemma?
Interesting what the stock market predicted before Biden took office. Link below.
A Biden Presidency Is Very Bullish For Oil Prices
Major media outlets have already announced Biden to be the next POTUS. While nothing is official official yet, the odds of Trump winning a 2nd term look unlikely.
seekingalpha.com
Someone asked me yesterday when when Canada imports 0% of any Russian petroleum products that it would affect the price at our pumps...I told him oil is a global commodity, the price affects us all...I know the sanctions on Russia is pushing oil prices to where we all feel the pain.
The question is whether a bit of foresight could have avoided this dilemma?
Interesting what the stock market predicted before Biden took office. Link below.
A Biden Presidency Is Very Bullish For Oil Prices
Major media outlets have already announced Biden to be the next POTUS. While nothing is official official yet, the odds of Trump winning a 2nd term look unlikely.
It's the taxes the government places on the end product that really affects us as a country.
That whole article and virtual publication certainly looks biased towards Trump...definitely not a neutral source.I know the sanctions on Russia is pushing oil prices to where we all feel the pain.
The question is whether a bit of foresight could have avoided this dilemma?
Interesting what the stock market predicted before Biden took office. Link below.
A Biden Presidency Is Very Bullish For Oil Prices
Major media outlets have already announced Biden to be the next POTUS. While nothing is official official yet, the odds of Trump winning a 2nd term look unlikely.
Not saying it's far fetched but just mentioning it's a biased opinion.
That being said, the oil producers of Alberta would whole-heartedly agree....their hopes and dreams were crushed in the cancellation of the Keystone pipeline...
The first mistake - Putin put off the invasion for Trump's second term so as not to impact Trump's campaign negatively. It's not that Putin was afraid of Trump, but he knew his value in disrupting NATO. In all probability, Putin's initial plan was to reassemble the Warsaw Pack countries, even the Nato ones. When Trump lost, Putin made the second mistake - doing it anyway.
If you don't think Putin considers such things, he held off for the winter Olympics for China didn't he? He even attended the games when most other political leaders were boycotting it.
Good point.....makes sense.
With the invasion, we are seeing an unique perspective from that of a defender point of view....Russia is known to use the old "sledge hammer" approach to attacks...anything that gets in their way gets smashed....even a precision based military such as the US will revert to the "sledge hammer" approach as precision guided ammo and missiles are very expensive....(one 155mm Excalibur round is over $10k).
When I see the images of the devastation and destruction of impact areas, nothing has shocked me yet....to the untrained eye it is appalling but to a trained eye, it is what war does....war is not pretty, it is war...sadly it's the civilian population which suffers the most.
I wonder if the fact the Ukrainian leadership decision to arm regular civilians was broadcasted and has led the invasion force to engage each target regardless of appearance knowing the populace has been armed?
Kind of like going into a Taliban compound and identifying combatants when they have the same appearance.
When I see the images of the devastation and destruction of impact areas, nothing has shocked me yet....to the untrained eye it is appalling but to a trained eye, it is what war does....war is not pretty, it is war...sadly it's the civilian population which suffers the most.
I wonder if the fact the Ukrainian leadership decision to arm regular civilians was broadcasted and has led the invasion force to engage each target regardless of appearance knowing the populace has been armed?
Kind of like going into a Taliban compound and identifying combatants when they have the same appearance.
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You're on the right track but you're not going back far enough:I know the sanctions on Russia is pushing oil prices to where we all feel the pain.
The question is whether a bit of foresight could have avoided this dilemma?
Interesting what the stock market predicted before Biden took office. Link below.
A Biden Presidency Is Very Bullish For Oil Prices
Major media outlets have already announced Biden to be the next POTUS. While nothing is official official yet, the odds of Trump winning a 2nd term look unlikely.
Nobody survives that Tzar Bomba.....
mark3evo
Registered
not even the Earth's crust
TallTom
Registered
You have outlined his war crimes defense. If citizens are armed in unknown large numbers, they have become enemy combatants. He can argue he was attacking enemy positions.
He won't get around hospitals and orphanages very easily however.
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